The Problem
Churn Signals Hide in Plain Sight
Accounts rarely churn "out of the blue." The early signs—SLA wobble, credits, sentiment dips, stakeholder turnover—show up months before renewal. Without a structured early-warning motion, teams scramble late, discount hard, or lose the logo.
The Framework
Risk Conditions (Act Early)
Act when these leading indicators appear—well before the notice window:
- Renewal in < 90 days and any of: backlog ↑, SLA risk rising, or aging P1/P2s
- CSAT/NPS trend ↓ over two consecutive cycles or customer effort ↑
- Executive sponsor change or reduced engagement in QBR/EBR
- Service credits predicted (near-breach forecasts) even if not yet paid
Action: Launch a save motion—stabilize outcomes, re-align on value, and pre-wire commercial options.
Issue Conditions (Already in Trouble)
If these are true, you're in active recovery:
- Credits paid in last 60 days or SLA breach rate (30d) > threshold
- Escalations at executive level or security/compliance incident tied to delivery
- Explicit price-down request with negative sentiment in stakeholder calls
Action: Deliver quick wins on outcomes, run an executive recovery plan, and set a structured commercial path.
Common Diagnostics
Quick checks to focus the save motion:
- Outcome gap: Which business outcomes matter most (uptime, throughput, launch readiness, compliance), and where are we missing?
- SLA realism: Do targets match environment reality (hours, volumes, complexity)?
- Incident pattern: Are 10–20% of breaches/vendor delays driving most pain?
- Stakeholder map: Who's the true decision maker? Has sponsor changed?
- Comms quality: Are we sending risk notices, not just post-mortems?
Step-by-Step Guide
Stabilize Outcomes
Actions:
- Publish a weekly recovery dashboard (targets, gaps, owners, dates)
- Pull 2–3 quick wins tied to the customer's top outcomes
- Pre-align a right-sized SLA tier or scope tweak based on observed reality
Expected Impact: Demonstrate momentum and rebuild confidence.
Executive Alignment
Actions:
- Schedule an EBR within 14 days; agree on a 30–60–90 plan
- Assign clear owners and checkpoints; share a written timeline
- Offer value pilots (automation, deflection, modernization) linked to their KPIs
Expected Impact: Shared ownership of the recovery path.
Commercial Path
Actions:
- Convert chronic out-of-scope work into Change Requests with outcomes/ROI
- Negotiate a credit remediation agreement (credits tied to milestone delivery)
- Re-tier SLAs or extend term alongside modernization to de-risk both sides
Expected Impact: Structured commercial path vs. open-ended discounting.
Close the Loop
Actions:
- Add the account to a renewal risk watchlist (120/90/60/30-day cadence)
- Capture root-cause patterns (vendor OLAs, staffing gaps, process debt)
- Update defaults & alerts so the next risk fires earlier with better context
Expected Impact: Systematic learning and earlier intervention next time.
KPIs to Track
| Metric | Target |
|---|---|
| Renewal probability | ↑ (risk-weighted) |
| Credits paid (60–90d) | ↓ to 0 |
| SLA compliance (30d) | At/above agreed tier |
| Executive sentiment | Neutral → positive (meeting notes / survey) |
| Outcome KPIs | Movement on the 1–2 metrics they value most |
Warning Signals
Real Scenarios
Account with Declining CSAT
Context
Key account renewal in 75 days. CSAT dropped from 4.2 to 3.6 over 2 quarters. No EBR in 90 days.
Steps
- 1.Review CSAT verbatims for specific complaints
- 2.Identify top 3 pain points driving score decline
- 3.Create quick win plan for 2 issues this month
- 4.Schedule EBR with executive sponsor
- 5.Propose 30-60-90 recovery plan with milestones
Post-Credit Recovery
Context
Paid $15K in credits last quarter. Stakeholder trust low. Renewal in 60 days.
Steps
- 1.Analyze root causes of credit-triggering breaches
- 2.Create recovery dashboard with targets and owners
- 3.Deliver 2 visible quick wins in week 1
- 4.Propose credit remediation agreement tied to milestones
- 5.Weekly executive touchpoints until renewal
Quick Wins
Start with these immediate actions:
- Create a renewal risk watchlist with 120/90/60/30-day triggers
- Pull a sentiment report for accounts renewing in next 90 days
- Identify accounts with credits paid in last 60 days
- Schedule EBRs for at-risk accounts within 14 days
Related Playbooks
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