The Problem
Predictable Peaks Still Cause Chaos
Tax season. Holiday sales. Product launches. Annual renewals. Even when surges are known in advance, teams slip into firefighting: occupancy blows past 90%, overtime and error rates climb, SLAs wobble, and post-peak backlogs linger for weeks. The fix is a repeatable, data-led surge plan—activated before the curve hits.
The Framework
Risk Conditions (Act Early)
Treat these as green-light triggers to start your surge plan:
- Forecasted volume +20–40% vs baseline 4–8 weeks out
- Skill coverage gaps for top surge categories (roster or shift gaps)
- Backlog growth trend turning positive for ≥ 2 weeks
- Known external events (release, campaign, regulatory window) with support impact
Action: Lock the surge roster, prep deflection, and ensure runbooks/KB are current for expected topics.
Issue Conditions (Peak Underway)
When you're in the thick of it, move to containment:
- Occupancy > 90% for 10+ business days
- SLA miss > 5% during peak week or priority-queue aging spikes
- Overtime cost rising > plan or error/reopen rate climbing
Action: Activate burst capacity, throttle non-urgent intake, and run daily stand-ups on priority outcomes.
Common Diagnostics
Quick checks to aim your effort:
- Top demand topics: Which 10 categories will spike? Are KB/runbooks ready?
- Roster reality: Do shifts cover nights/weekends and critical skills?
- Channel mix: Are self-service/chat flows tuned to deflect repetitive asks?
- Bottlenecks: Any approvals or vendor dependencies likely to stall throughput?
- Post-peak plan: Do you have a backlog burn-down playbook scheduled?
Step-by-Step Guide
Prepare
Actions:
- Lock surge schedule with backups for key skills; brief vendor burst pools
- Refresh KB & macros for top surge topics; add search synonyms/pinned answers
- Tune chat/IVR triage to fast-path repetitive requests
- Freeze risky changes (tooling/process) that could add noise
- Set comms cadence (internal huddles + customer status updates)
Expected Impact: Lower peak inflow to agents; faster first responses; fewer escalations.
Operate
Actions:
- Daily 15-min stand-ups: yesterday's aging, today's priorities, blockers, owners
- Priority routing: P1/P2 to best skills; defer non-urgent work if contracts allow
- Activate burst capacity: vendor pool or OT with clear stop criteria
- Quality guardrails: double-check high-risk categories to avoid reopens
Expected Impact: SLA adherence on critical queues; controlled aging; predictable comms.
Recover
Actions:
- Backlog burn-down sprint: oldest-age first, daily targets visible to all
- De-escalate staffing: roll off OT/vendors as targets are met
- Customer recap: share outcomes and any credits avoided/applied
Expected Impact: Backlog cleared in 7–10 days; spend back within plan.
Harden
Actions:
- Variance review: forecast vs actual, skills vs demand, vendor performance
- Update surge kit: KB/runbooks, macros, triage rules, roster templates
- Contract updates: add surge provisions or tiered SLAs for next cycle
- Automation candidates: identify top repetitive work to automate before next peak
Expected Impact: Next surge is smoother with less scramble.
KPIs to Track
| Metric | Target |
|---|---|
| SLA compliance (critical queues) during peak | ≥ agreed tier |
| Agent occupancy | ≤ 85–90% with surge buffer |
| Overtime/burst spend vs plan | ≤ budget |
| Post-peak backlog clearance time | ≤ 7–10 days |
| Reopen/error rate | At or below baseline |
Warning Signals
Real Scenarios
Tax Season Crunch
Context
Annual tax deadline 6 weeks away. Historical data shows 35% volume spike. Team not yet prepared.
Steps
- 1.Pull last year's surge data: top categories, peak days, issues
- 2.Lock roster with backups for critical skills
- 3.Refresh KB articles for top 10 tax-related topics
- 4.Set up daily stand-up cadence for peak weeks
- 5.Brief vendor burst pool on activation criteria
Product Launch Support
Context
Major product release in 4 weeks. Marketing expects 50% more sign-ups. Support not in the loop.
Steps
- 1.Get product/marketing briefing on launch details
- 2.Identify expected support topics and create KB articles
- 3.Train team on new product features
- 4.Tune chat/IVR for common questions
- 5.Schedule daily stand-ups for launch week
Quick Wins
Start with these immediate actions:
- Identify your next predictable surge (season, launch, renewal)
- Pull historical data for the last similar surge
- Refresh KB articles for top 5 expected topics
- Lock your surge roster 4 weeks before peak
Related Playbooks
Want to automate this playbook?
DigitalCore tracks these metrics automatically and alerts you before problems become crises.